The original URL for a prediction on longbets.org, www.longbets.org/601, will no longer be available after 11 years, marking its expiration in 2022, according to the site’s records. This prediction, made in 2011, was part of a wager between Jeremy Keith and Matthew A Haughey, with stakes directed to charitable organizations depending on the outcome.
The bet, titled “The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in eleven years,” involved a $1,000 stake that would go to Bletchly Park Trust if Keith won or to The Internet Archive if Haughey prevailed. Keith argued that web documents rarely survive in their original locations over time due to link rot, while Haughey believed that web technology and strategies had matured enough to maintain stable URLs over long periods.
This wager highlights the ongoing challenge of web link rot, where URLs become inaccessible or change over time, undermining the permanence of online information. The debate reflects broader concerns about digital preservation and the reliability of web resources, issues that have grown in importance as the internet has aged beyond two decades.
The bet’s conclusion in 2022 serves as a concrete example of the difficulties in maintaining persistent web addresses. The outcome impacts organizations like Bletchly Park Trust and The Internet Archive, which are involved in digital preservation efforts, underscoring the real-world stakes tied to the longevity of online content.